StatsAreFinite / Sample 001

Data frozen · 2025-10-02

Sample NFL matchup breakdown

One point estimate at a time. Every number below is paired with its input, source, and assumptions.

2025 NFL season · Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

Monday, October 6, 2025 · 8:15 p.m. ET EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, Florida

Game context

A fixed pregame sample for the Chiefs’ visit to Jacksonville. The snapshot stops before kickoff and uses each featured player’s Week 4 box score as its baseline.

The player card

Projections & reasoning

Last-game carry-forward

For each featured statistic, the most recent completed game is carried forward as a one-game point estimate. Etienne’s rushing estimate is attempts multiplied by yards per carry, rounded to a whole yard.

Side 01

Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City

01 / QB

Patrick Mahomes

Passing yards

270yds
Calculation
Week 4 passing yards carried forward: 270 → 270 yds.
Observed input
Week 4 passing yards: 270 yds
Assumptions
  • The Week 4 passing-yard total is the full baseline for the next game; passing volume and efficiency are assumed to combine for the same total.
  • No Jacksonville defense, game-script, weather, health, or regression adjustment is applied.

Source · as of 2025-10-02NFL.com · Week 4 takeaways

02 / WR

Xavier Worthy

Receiving yards

83yds
Calculation
Week 4 receiving yards carried forward: 83 → 83 yds.
Observed input
Week 4 receiving yards: 83 yds
Assumptions
  • The Week 4 receiving-yard total is carried forward; his route and target role and receiving efficiency are assumed to repeat.
  • His single-game return sample is not adjusted for Jacksonville coverage, injury news, target competition, or regression.

Source · as of 2025-10-02NFL.com · Week 4 takeaways

Side 02

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville

01 / QB

Trevor Lawrence

Passing yards

174yds
Calculation
Week 4 passing yards carried forward: 174 → 174 yds.
Observed input
Week 4 passing yards: 174 yds
Assumptions
  • The Week 4 passing-yard total is the full baseline for the next game; passing volume and efficiency are assumed to combine for the same total.
  • No Kansas City defense, game-script, weather, health, or regression adjustment is applied.

Source · as of 2025-10-02Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4 box score

02 / RB

Travis Etienne Jr.

Rushing yards

124yds
Calculation
19 carries × 6.5 yards per carry = 123.5; rounded to 124 yds.
Observed input
Week 4 carries: 19 attempts · Week 4 rushing yards: 124 yds · Week 4 yards per carry, rounded: 6.5 yds/carry
Assumptions
  • Both Week 4 carry volume and its rounded yards-per-carry rate repeat: 19 × 6.5 = 123.5, rounded to the nearest whole yard.
  • No Kansas City run-defense, game-script, weather, health, or regression adjustment is applied.

Source · as of 2025-10-02Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4 box score

Method notes

What this does—and leaves out

For each featured statistic, the most recent completed game is carried forward as a one-game point estimate. Etienne’s rushing estimate is attempts multiplied by yards per carry, rounded to a whole yard.

This is a deliberately simple teaching example, not a calibrated or live forecast. A single game is a noisy sample. The method does not adjust for opponent strength, pace, game script, weather, injury news, role changes, or regression to a season average.

Sourcebook

Inputs we used

Snapshot cutoff · 2025-10-02

Historical sample only. It is not a live projection feed, injury report, fantasy recommendation, or betting advice.